Expressing Opinions About the Refugee Crisis in Europe: The Spiral of Silence and Crisis Communication

Abstract

Framing of crisis events is to a large extent contested, with multiple sources and confl ictingmessages. Theories of crisis communication acknowledge how people try to deal with thesecompeting messages, and this article seeks to deepen the understanding the process of sensemaking of crisis events by connecting crisis communication to the spiral of silence theory. Thespiral of silence theory, founded by Elisabeth Noelle-Neuman, proposes that people are lesswilling to express their opinions if they believe their beliefs are shared by a minority. This will leadto a spiral in which those who feel their opinions are popular are more inclined to express theiropinions, and those who perceive their opinions are unpopular among the public become moresilent. This study analyzed changes over time in the willingness to express opinions about therefugee crisis in Europe using a two-wave Web-panel survey (N = 1,185) in Sweden in 2015–2016.The focus is the impact of changing government policy, which moved from a generous refugeepolicy toward a more restrictive policy. Changes toward a more restrictive refugee policy didnot seem to change the overall picture. Those supporting a more restrictive policy were still lessinclined to speak their true opinions about the refugee crisis, even if the policy had changed intheir favor. On the other hand, respondents supporting a more generous refugee policy seemedto become more cautious about expressing their opinions about the refugee crisis after the policychange, especially when talking to strangers.